Critical information on long-range energy planning continues to build up an encouraging picture of the future. Consider the following:
- The National Bank of Abu Dhabi has issued a major report for the oil rich, Gulf region financial services sector showing that renewable energy development will competitively displace oil and gas within the next decade.
- PNC Bank (fifth largest in the US) has just issued its 2015 Corporate Responsibility Report in which it announced the end of investment in the mountain top removal coal industry.
- The City Council of Cambridge MA voted unanimously to not renew its contract with TransCanada Corporation for its municipal electricity supply, and to source its electricity entirely from renewable generation.
- National Grid Statistics in the UK show that in August 2014 electrical energy from wind surpassed the production of both nuclear and coal.
- Electricity production increase from renewable sources in the US for the first three quarters of 2014 grew 35 times faster than from oil, nuclear and coal.
- In 2014, renewable energy became Scotland’s largest source of power. The country is on track for carbon and nuclear free electricity.
- India has announced a massive renewable energy development program aiming to produce 160 gigawatts from solar and wind by 2022. This is so big that it is being called “a gift to the world” with respect to driving investment and growth in the renewable energy industry.
These are just a few of the reports that have recently emerged from the frontier of enlightened, long-range energy planning.
Where does this leave New Brunswick? There is good evidence that the leadership of NB Power recognizes what is happening in the world of renewable energy development. They have set a goal of 40% renewable energy electricity by 2020. They recognize that a diverse mix of sources will be needed, including small scale distributed generation.
It’s not clear, however, that New Brunswick’s political leadership has been adequately exposed to the paradigm shift now taking place in long-term energy planning. The current government’s “go slow” stance on shale gas development may be an indication that a rethinking is underway.
But provincial leadership is in a tough spot; it would take extraordinary leadership to step out from under the goal of maximizing hydrocarbon extraction and consumption that now dominates Canada’s political economy.
So it’s understandable that provincial leadership would sign up for the Energy East pipeline despite the fact that the World Bank, the International Energy Agency, and the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, as well as a many other analysts, now clearly understand and have publically stated that most of the hydrocarbons still underground must remain there.
Science-based risk analysis now shows that only one-third of known fossil fuel deposits can be extracted and safely burned by the end of the century. Beyond that limit, climate chaos is likely to ensue. This is important information for long-range energy planning. This is also a serious blow for the Alberta oil-sands and the pipeline business.
Given the leadership on long-range, renewable energy planning that is emerging world-wide, New Brunswick, and all of Canada, has a choice; constrain carbon and mobilize the rapid deployment of renewable energy, or push the hydrocarbon economy until it fails and then figure our what to do in the crisis. Crisis planning is, well, a crisis. Long-range, frontline, renewable energy planning would be a lot smarter.
Written by Keith Helmuth, a member of the Woodstock Sustainable Energy Group.
Energy Futures Column published in the Bugle-Observer, March 20, 2015.