Although much about our energy future is uncertain, energy science analysts are in agreement about the future of oil and other hydrocarbons: Their costs will rise, they will become harder to obtain, and they will eventually become depleted and phased out as an economically viable and source energy.
There is general agreement that we are on the downhill slope of the oil energy era and the slope is rapidly increasing. New discoveries are not making up for the steady rate of increasing depletion. The oil energy era is coming to an end. We don’t know the exact timetable, but it is a geophysical certainty that it will end.
When the reality of this situation dawns on us we can take one of two attitudes: We can say, “Ok, what should we do to prepare for end of the oil era?” Or we can say, “Full steam ahead; use as much oil and natural gas as we can for as long as we can and let chips fall where they may in the future.” This latter attitude seems quite prevalent, although most of us wouldn’t say it out loud, at least not in front of our grandchildren.
To help get started thinking about the end of the oil era, the Woodstock Sustainable Energy Group prepared an analysis of how the various forms of energy we use in our community will be affected by peak oil and its decline. This analysis is shown as a chart in our energy transition guidebook, From Oil Dependency to Renewable Energy.
This Energy Futures column will provide a review of the our vulnerability analysis along with options for advancing to renewables.
Electricity: For residential, commercial, institutional, agricultural, and industrial use the vulnerability to peak oil is low. As electricity generation shifts more and more to renewable sources, it will become increasingly stable and secure. Electric cars that are hybrids will be highly vulnerable: Plug-in hybrids will be less vulnerable, and complete electric cars will have almost no vulnerability.
Fuel Oil: For residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial heating the vulnerability to peak oil is severe.
The following potential solutions would reduce or largely eliminate vulnerability for the two categories above; solar hot water, solar photovoltaic, passive solar retrofit, geothermal and air-to-air heat exchangers, wind, biogas, biofuels, wood and wood pellets, and energy efficiency upgrading.
Wood and wood products: For space heating the vulnerability is moderate. Harvesting and transporting wood is largely dependent on oil. Alternatives are passive solar retrofit, geothermal and air-to-air heat exchangers, and energy efficiency upgrading.
Gasoline and diesel: Cars, trucks, agricultural equipment, grounds maintenance, power sports, and motorized recreation are all severely vulnerable to peak oil. Potential solutions for reducing or eliminating vulnerability include, fully electric vehicles, public transportation, walking, cycling, biodiesel, biogas, animal power, manual tools, electric tools, and non-motorized sports and recreational activities.
Propane: Space heating, water heating, and cooking are all severely vulnerable to peak oil. Again, the alternatives are all the forms of solar (passive, hot water, photovoltaic), wind, heat exchangers, wood and wood pellets, and energy efficiency upgrading.
Geothermal and air-to-air heat exchangers: Space heating has low vulnerability. This technology requires electricity but that can be provided by renewables.
Solar (passive, photovoltaic): Space heating, water heating, electricity generation has almost no vulnerability to peak oil.
Wind: Electricity generation has almost no vulnerability to peak oil.
From this we can see where the shifts in energy technology have to take place. The good news is all the technology we need is available. We just have to apply it now to avoid getting caught out in the energy shift that is coming with end of the oil era.
Written by Keith Helmuth, a member of the Woodstock Sustainable Energy Group (SEG).
Energy Futures column published in the Bugle-Observer, August 2014.